M\u00e1r 2 Celsius-fokos emelked\u00e9s is s\u00falyos katasztr\u00f3f\u00e1hoz vezethet, a 3\u20135 fokos pedig bel\u00e1thatatlan k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyekkel j\u00e1rhat az emberis\u00e9gre n\u00e9zve.Mondhatn\u00e1nk h\u00e1t, hogy igen aktu\u00e1lis volt az \u00c9rdi Csillag\u00e1szati Klub legut\u00f3bbi el\u0151ad\u00e1sa, b\u00e1r Telbisz Tam\u00e1s, az ELTE Term\u00e9szetf\u00f6ldrajzi Tansz\u00e9k\u00e9nek docense a F\u00f6ld v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 p\u00e1lyaelemei \u00e9s az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok c\u00edm\u0171 el\u0151ad\u00e1s\u00e1ban nem az emberis\u00e9g \u00e1ltal hihetetlen\u00fcl \u00e9s aggaszt\u00f3an felgyors\u00edtott folyamatokr\u00f3l besz\u00e9lt, hanem olyan jelens\u00e9gekr\u0151l, amelyek t\u0151l\u00fcnk f\u00fcggetlen\u00fcl eredm\u00e9nyeznek id\u0151r\u0151l id\u0151re id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1s-v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1st.<\/p>\n
A mai felmeleged\u00e9s kor\u00e1ntsem egyenes vonal\u00fa v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s, ma m\u00e1r tudjuk \u2013 tudj\u00e1k az ezzel foglalkoz\u00f3 tud\u00f3sok \u2013, hogy a F\u00f6ld utols\u00f3 2,5 milli\u00f3 \u00e9v\u00e9nek \u00e9ghajlat\u00e1ra a legjellemz\u0151bb a melegebb \u00e9s hidegebb id\u0151szakok v\u00e1ltakoz\u00e1sa. A k\u00f6zbesz\u00e9dben egy, mindent elpuszt\u00edt\u00f3 j\u00e9gkorszakot szok\u00e1s emlegetni, ezzel szemben t\u00f6bb, k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 intenzit\u00e1s\u00fa ilyenr\u0151l besz\u00e9lhet\u00fcnk. A legelterjedtebb elk\u00e9pzel\u00e9s (Milankovics-elm\u00e9let) szerint a j\u00e9gkorszakok kialakul\u00e1sa a F\u00f6ld p\u00e1lyaelemeinek ingadoz\u00e1saival hozhat\u00f3 \u00f6sszef\u00fcgg\u00e9sbe. Ilyen a bolyg\u00f3nk ellipszis alak\u00fa p\u00e1ly\u00e1ja k\u00f6rt\u0151l val\u00f3 elt\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00e9s a forg\u00e1stengely d\u0151l\u00e9s\u00e9nek v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sa, valamint a forg\u00e1stengely imbolyg\u00e1sa (forg\u00e1s k\u00f6zben a tengely egy k\u00fapot \u00edr le). Telbisz Tam\u00e1s ezeknek a folyamatoknak a r\u00e9szleteibe avatta be hallgat\u00f3it minden szakszer\u0171s\u00e9ge ellen\u00e9re \u00e9lvezetes \u00e9s k\u00f6z\u00e9rthet\u0151 st\u00edlusban.
\nAmit ebb\u0151l laikusk\u00e9nt lesz\u0171rhet\u00fcnk: a p\u00e1lyaelemek v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sa a F\u00f6ldet \u00e9r\u0151 napenergia m\u00f3dosul\u00e1s\u00e1t eredm\u00e9nyezi. \u00c9ghajlati modellekkel v\u00e9gzett sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sok azonban arra utalnak, hogy ezzel a periodikus ingadoz\u00e1ssal n\u00e9h\u00e1ny fokos \u00e1tlagos h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet-v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok nem magyar\u00e1zhat\u00f3k. Ez\u00e9rt ma \u00fagy gondolj\u00e1k a tud\u00f3sok, hogy a p\u00e1lyaelemek ciklikus ingadoz\u00e1sai elind\u00edtj\u00e1k a h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet megv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s\u00e1t, \u00e9s egyben olyan folyamatokat v\u00e1ltanak ki, amelyek tov\u00e1bb fokozz\u00e1k az eredeti v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1st <\/p>\n
Az eml\u00edtett p\u00e1lyaingadoz\u00e1sok nem azonnal \u00e9s nem l\u00e1tv\u00e1nyosan hatnak F\u00f6ld\u00fcnk id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1s\u00e1ra, t\u00f6bb t\u00edzezer, ak\u00e1r sz\u00e1zezer \u00e9ves ciklusokr\u00f3l besz\u00e9lhet\u00fcnk, a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 j\u00e9gkorszakig is van m\u00e9g legal\u00e1bb 23 ezer \u00e9v\u00fcnk \u2013 ha addig mi magunk \u00e9lhetetlenn\u00e9 nem tessz\u00fck a F\u00f6ldet.
\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A szakemberek egyre vadabbul kongatj\u00e1k a v\u00e9szharangot a kl\u00edmav\u00e1ltoz\u00e1ssal kapcsolatban, \u00e1ll\u00edtj\u00e1k: az \u00e9vsz\u00e1zad v\u00e9g\u00e9re 3\u20135 Celsius-fokkal lehet magasabb a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1tlagh\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet az ipari forradalom el\u0151tti szinthez k\u00e9pest. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"cikk_cimkek":[25],"content_flags":[],"content_icons":[],"class_list":["post-3502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-erdmost","cikk_cimkek-mindennapok"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3502"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3502\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3502"},{"taxonomy":"cikk_cimkek","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cikk_cimkek?post=3502"},{"taxonomy":"content_flags","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/content_flags?post=3502"},{"taxonomy":"content_icons","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/erdmost.hu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/content_icons?post=3502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}